Le prix du baril : le pari
Pourquoi on ne devrait pas parier sur les prix de l'essence (comme moi et Bryan l'avons, même si je considére être en voie de gagner mon pari sur le prix du baril) :
If the best predictor of future prices is present price, how then do we account for the extreme volatility in the record? Simple: Present price may be the best predictor, but it is a lousy predictor nonetheless. Hamilton finds that the standard deviation in oil prices from quarter-to-quarter was 15.28%. Hence, if we start a quarter with $115 oil, prices in the next quarter could average between $85 and $156 per barrel. In a year, they could range between $62 and $212. In four years, they might be anywhere between $34 and $391!
Libellés : Essence
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